The first semester of 2013 has been marked by a further economic slowdown and by a substantial expansion of the world fleet, with negative consequences on the major shipping segments. By contrast, in the second semester of 2013, the US economy showed some positive sign along with the rise in Chinese imports, it has led to an increase in the demand for ships. However, fewer ship deliveries than expected have slowed the growth of the world fleet with an increase in the demand for ships by 6% and an average usage rate of the fleet of 85% (+1% compared to 2012). As regards 2014, on the 30th of April for the first time since 2011, Moody’s changed its outlook on the maritime industry from negative to stable, on the basis of an expected growth of EBITDA in the maritime transport sector. In addition, Moody’s affirms that despite the cargo hold capacity oversupply, the ratio between supply and demand in maritime transport is not going to deviate from the point of balance by no more than 2%.

Despite the forecasts, 2014 was not the year of the recovery for the shipbuilding industry. Without a strong world economy, the fleet utilization rate remained steady although considerable differences amongst the various market segments came to light: a favourable trend for LPG and tankers while bulk carriers recorded a drop. The volatility of freight rates, as characterized last year, arose from endogenous industrial factors due to American shale oil production, which provoked an increase in the LPG shipments and, as a consequence, a drop in the oil price, although the extraction levels remained constant. In the bulk segment, the swing in the Chinese energetic policy led to a reduction in coal consumption while the ban for Indonesia to export bauxite and nickel contributed to the drop of freight rates.

The world economy performed better in 2017 with a growth of 3.7% against 3.2% the previous year. World seaborne trade growth also accelerated from 2.8% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2017. Global dry bulk trade growth accelerated from 1.3% in 2016 to 3.7% in 2017, while the growth in the oil trade inched down slightly from 4.2% to 2.5%. Container throughput growth accelerated sharply from 2.5% to 6.5%.

In 2018 the global economy has recorded a rate of growth of 3.7% as well as for the world maritime traffic has been found an increase of 3.1%; the world fleet has grown of 2.8%. The increase of the traffics of dry cargoes has been equal to the 2,6,%; instead, the sector of the oil has made record a +1,4%; the containerized traffics have increased of the 4,6%. To download the full report click on details.